东方电缆：在手订单创新高，产能有望逐步释放-20250327

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 18.6 billion, 22.9 billion, and 26.5 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.09 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, with a net profit of 1.01 billion RMB, reflecting a slight growth of 0.8% [2]. - The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 2.39 billion RMB, up 22.1% year-on-year but down 9.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 76 million RMB, down 57.3% year-on-year and 73.6% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company is experiencing fluctuations in Q4 performance primarily due to the delivery schedule of offshore wind projects, with low-margin land cable revenue accounting for approximately 72% of Q4 revenue [3]. - The company achieved a slight increase in offshore cable revenue to 2.78 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 39.6%, although this represents a decline of 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company has a record high order backlog of approximately 18 billion RMB as of March 21, with significant increases in offshore cable orders [4]. - New production capacity is expected to be gradually released, with the Yangjiang offshore cable production base projected to reach 75% completion by the end of 2024, contributing to meeting current order delivery needs [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.09 billion RMB, marking a 24.4% increase year-on-year, while the net profit reached 1.01 billion RMB, a growth of 0.8% [2]. Operational Analysis - Q4 performance was impacted by the delivery schedule of offshore wind projects, with a significant portion of revenue coming from lower-margin land cables [3]. - The company’s offshore cable revenue showed a slight increase, with a notable improvement in sales price per kilometer [4]. Order Backlog and Capacity - The company’s order backlog reached a historical high of 18 billion RMB, driven by increased bidding activity in the offshore wind sector [4]. - The Yangjiang production base is on track to meet delivery demands with new capacity expected to come online in 2025 [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profits from 2025 to 2027 indicates significant growth, with a "Buy" rating maintained based on favorable industry conditions and company performance [6].