珍酒李渡：24H2着眼长线主动降速，25年高质量增长可期-20250327

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to focus on long-term quality growth while actively managing inventory levels, leading to a projected revenue of 70.67 billion yuan for 2024, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates a challenging second half of 2024, with revenues expected to decline by 16.5% to 29.34 billion yuan, driven by a decrease in sales volume and a slight increase in price per ton [1][2]. - The company is strategically simplifying its product lines, particularly in the high-end segment, to stabilize market prices and ensure long-term development [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For 2024H2, the company expects a revenue of 29.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16.5%, and a net profit of 5.72 billion yuan, down 22.9% [1]. - The gross margin improved slightly to 58.44%, up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the release of self-owned production capacity and a focus on high-margin products [3]. - Adjusted net profit margin decreased to 22.44%, down 0.92 percentage points, primarily due to increased management expenses related to depreciation and amortization [3]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on a dual-channel growth strategy, enhancing its presence in key markets while optimizing its organizational structure to support high-end product development [2][4]. - The company plans to adjust its product offerings to emphasize mid-range and high-end price points, aiming to capture changing consumer demands [4]. - The company has increased its number of distribution partners and retail outlets, indicating a commitment to expanding its market reach [2]. Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected revenues of 73.28 billion yuan, 81.00 billion yuan, and 87.86 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the ongoing industry adjustment [4]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 15.25 billion yuan, 18.20 billion yuan, and 23.05 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.9, 12.5, and 9.9 [4].