CHINA RES LAND(HK:01109) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-27 06:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance in revenue recognition and has a recurring profit contribution exceeding 10 billion [5] - Due to the industry's sales decline, profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down, with new projections for 2027 introduced, estimating net profits of 28.99 billion, 31.70 billion, and 34.91 billion for 2025-2027 respectively [5] - The company maintains a strong market share and has a robust land reserve to support future revenue recognition [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 278.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit of 25.6 billion, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin was 21.6%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a development business gross margin of 16.8% [6] - The company had a cash and bank balance of 133.2 billion, an increase of 16.5% year-on-year, and a dividend per share of 1.319, with a payout ratio rising to 37% [6] Recurring Business Contribution - The recurring revenue for 2024 was 41.6 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, with a recurring core net profit of 10.3 billion, an increase of 8.2% [7] - The shopping center segment generated rental income of 19.3 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 76.0% [7] - The company opened 16 new shopping malls in 2024, bringing the total to 92 [7] Sales and Market Position - In 2024, the company achieved sales of 261.1 billion, ranking among the top three in the industry, with a market share of 2.7% [8] - The company acquired 29 plots of land in 2024, adding 3.93 million square meters to its land reserve, with 94% located in first and second-tier cities [8] - The total saleable resources amounted to 500.9 billion, with 89% located in first and second-tier cities [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 4.07, 4.45, and 4.90 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 [9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 12.6% in 2027 [9]