CNCB(SH:601998) Huachuang Securities·2025-03-27 07:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for CITIC Bank, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][22]. Core Views - CITIC Bank's 2024 performance shows steady growth in revenue and profit, with total operating income reaching CNY 213.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 68.58 billion, up 2.33% year-on-year [2][7]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.16%, while the provision coverage ratio fell to 209.4%, indicating stable asset quality [2][7]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) remained relatively stable, decreasing only 1 basis point to 1.77% compared to the end of 2023, supported by effective cost management on the liability side [7][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Growth: - Total operating income for 2024 is projected at CNY 213.65 billion, with a growth rate of 3.76% [8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 68.58 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.33% [8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS for 2024 is estimated at CNY 1.23, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.87 [8][12]. - Dividends: - The annual dividend is projected at CNY 0.3547 per share, with a dividend payout ratio increasing to 30.5% [7][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - Non-Performing Loan Ratio: - The NPL ratio is reported at 1.16%, with a slight decrease from previous periods, indicating improved asset quality [7][10]. - Provision Coverage Ratio: - The provision coverage ratio stands at 209.4%, reflecting a robust buffer against potential loan losses [7][10]. - Loan Growth: - Total loans are expected to grow by approximately 4% annually, with a balanced distribution between corporate and retail loans [7][9]. Future Projections - Revenue Growth Forecast: - Revenue growth is projected at 3.6%, 4.1%, and 5.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][8]. - Net Profit Growth Forecast: - Net profit growth is expected to be 3.4%, 4.6%, and 6.2% for the same years [7][8]. - Target Price: - The target price for CITIC Bank is set at CNY 7.98, with a corresponding price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.6x for 2025 [7][8].