Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-03-27 07:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 27.6% in 2024, reaching CNY 54.45 billion, with a net profit of CNY 4.41 billion, up 11.5% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 showed a decline in net profit due to asset impairment [1][2] - The growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the increase in both volume and price in the electrolytic aluminum segment, with a notable rise in the average price of alumina by 39% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is enhancing its resource security and competitive advantage through an integrated layout, focusing on the development of alumina resources in Yunnan province [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 54.45 billion, a 27.6% increase from 2023. The net profit was CNY 4.41 billion, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of CNY 15.27 billion, an 18.3% increase year-on-year, but a significant drop in net profit by 59.2% year-on-year due to asset impairment [1][4] - The production figures for 2024 included 2.938 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 22.5% increase year-on-year, while alumina production slightly decreased by 1.4% to 1.409 million tons [2] Market Dynamics - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is nearing its capacity limit of 44 million tons, while demand is expected to recover, potentially driving aluminum prices higher. The shift in demand towards high-end markets and green development is anticipated to support long-term demand for electrolytic aluminum [3] - The report suggests that the company, as a leader in the green aluminum industry, is well-positioned to benefit from both cost advantages and resource advantages, with a projected net profit of CNY 6.81 billion in 2025 [3][4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of CNY 6.81 billion, CNY 8.10 billion, and CNY 9.02 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.9, 7.5, and 6.7 [3][4]