CNCB(SH:601998) Huachuang Securities·2025-03-27 07:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for CITIC Bank, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% in the next six months [2][22]. Core Views - CITIC Bank's 2024 performance shows steady growth in revenue and profit, with total operating income reaching CNY 213.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 68.58 billion, up 2.33% year-on-year [2][7]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.16%, and the provision coverage ratio stands at 209.4%, indicating stable asset quality [7][10]. - The bank's net interest margin remains stable at 1.77%, with a focus on balancing volume and price in its asset management strategy [7][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: In 2024, CITIC Bank achieved total operating income of CNY 213.65 billion, with a projected growth rate of 3.76% for 2025 [8]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow to CNY 70.91 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.41% [8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to be CNY 1.28 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.68 [8][12]. Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - Non-Performing Loan Ratio: The non-performing loan ratio is projected to remain stable at 1.14% in 2025 [10]. - Provision Coverage Ratio: The provision coverage ratio is expected to increase to 212.47% in 2025, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [10]. - Loan Growth: Total loans are projected to grow by approximately 4% annually, with a balanced distribution between corporate and retail loans [7][9]. Dividend and Valuation - Dividend Payout: The bank plans to distribute a dividend of CNY 0.3547 per share in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.5% [7]. - Target Price: The target price for CITIC Bank is set at CNY 7.98, based on a projected price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.6x for 2025 [7][8].