HAIDILAO(06862) 光大证券·2025-03-27 07:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862.HK) with a current price of HKD 17.62 [1] Core Insights - Haidilao's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of HKD 427.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of HKD 47.1 billion, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was HKD 212.6 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 26.7 billion, up 19.1% year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Haidilao's restaurant operations, takeaway business, seasoning products, and other sales generated revenues of HKD 403.98 billion, HKD 12.54 billion, HKD 5.75 billion, and HKD 4.83 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 20.4%, -27.1%, and 39.6% [5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, up from 3.8 times per day in 2023 [6] - The overall customer unit price for 2024 was HKD 97.5, slightly down from HKD 99.1 in 2023, but the second half of 2024 saw a recovery in unit price [6] Cost Structure - In the second half of 2024, the net profit margin improved to 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs, which accounted for 36.8% of revenue [6] - For the full year 2024, raw material costs accounted for 37.9% of revenue, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Haidilao launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 sub-brands, aiming to diversify its offerings and enhance customer engagement [8] - The company plans to increase the number of main brand stores (including franchises) in 2025, focusing on third-tier cities and below [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for Haidilao are adjusted to HKD 53.55 billion and HKD 59.71 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of HKD 65.15 billion [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of 17x, indicating a mature single-store model and strong brand momentum [9]