POP MART(09992) 海通国际证券·2025-03-27 08:04Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Pop Mart International [2][9][15] Core Views - The company achieved record revenue and profit, with revenue expected to approach RMB 100 billion [1][3] - The company is projected to continue strong growth, with revenue expected to exceed RMB 200 billion in 2025, driven by both domestic and international markets [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, revenue reached RMB 13.04 billion, a 107% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit margin of 66.8%, up 5.5 percentage points [3][14] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 3.4 billion, reflecting a 186% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 26.1% [3][14] - The company expects revenue for 2025 to be RMB 22.1 billion, a 69% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit to reach RMB 6.3 billion, an 86% increase [9][15] Domestic Business Summary - Domestic revenue was RMB 7.97 billion, up 52% year-on-year, with significant growth in both offline and online channels [4][14] - The number of retail stores increased to 401, with a net addition of 38 stores [4][14] - Online sales grew by 77%, driven by increased customer engagement across various platforms [4][14] International Business Summary - International revenue surged to RMB 5.07 billion, a 375% increase year-on-year, with overseas revenue accounting for 39% of total revenue [5][14] - The company expanded its international presence, adding 50 retail stores and entering new markets including Vietnam, Indonesia, and Italy [5][14] - The gross profit margin for international operations was 71.3%, exceeding domestic levels [5][14] IP Development and Membership Growth - The company reported strong performance from its IPs, with revenue from major IPs exceeding RMB 1 billion each [7][14] - Membership numbers reached 46.08 million, a 34% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to sales [7][14] Theme Park Business Summary - The theme park segment exceeded expectations in revenue and profitability, attracting a diverse visitor demographic [8][14] - The company plans to upgrade two-thirds of the park's area and initiate a second phase of construction by 2026 [8][14] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects adjusted net profit margins to improve to 28.6% in 2025 and 30.9% by 2027 [9][15] - The target price for the stock is set at HKD 158.2, based on a 30x PE valuation for FY25 [9][15]