NONGFU SPRING(HK:09633) NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-03-27 08:04Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue growth of 0.5% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 428.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 121.23 billion yuan, also up by 0.4% [1]. - The packaging water business faced a significant decline in the second half of 2024, with revenue dropping by 24.4% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing public relations issues and increased promotional spending [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to see a recovery in the packaging water sector in 2025, driven by a decrease in price competition and improved profitability [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 58.1%, primarily due to increased promotional activities and rising raw material costs [3]. - The company’s net profit margin remained stable at 28.3% in 2024, with a slight reduction in sales and administrative expense ratios [3]. - Forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.25, 1.42, and 1.59 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25x, 22x, and 20x [3]. Market Data - The target price for the stock is set at 40.72 HKD, with the current closing price at 33.70 HKD, indicating potential upside [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 379 billion HKD [5].