HPI(600011) 华福证券·2025-03-27 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 245.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.48% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.01% to 10.135 billion yuan [2][3]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a 2.85% drop in average on-grid electricity prices, which resulted in a revenue loss of 5.806 billion yuan, despite a 1.13% increase in on-grid electricity volume [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.27 yuan per share, totaling approximately 4.238 billion yuan, reflecting a cash dividend payout ratio of 58.78% for 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's coal-fired power generation revenue decreased by 4.59% in 2024, with total profit amounting to 7.138 billion yuan, a significant increase of 1548% year-on-year [4]. - The average on-grid electricity price for coal-fired generation fell, but the reduction in fuel costs contributed to the profit growth [4]. - The company is actively investing in low-carbon development, with planned capital expenditures for wind and solar energy reaching 51.2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.01 billion yuan [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 10.164 billion yuan, 10.556 billion yuan, and 10.877 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7, 10.3, and 10.0 [6].