MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 华泰证券·2025-03-27 08:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to show significant profit elasticity in 2025 due to low raw milk prices, improved operational efficiency, and reduced impairment pressures from 2024 [4][6] - The company has adjusted its channels since March 2024, which has led to a decline in liquid milk revenue, but core product ASP remains strong, indicating structural opportunities [2][3] Revenue and Profitability Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 886.7 million and 10.4 million respectively, down 10.1% and 97.8% year-on-year [1] - The operating profit margin (OPM) for 2024 increased by 1.9 percentage points to 8.2%, exceeding the target of a 30-50 basis point increase, mainly due to lower raw milk costs and various quality improvement measures [3][4] - The gross profit margin for 2024 rose by 2.4 percentage points to 39.6% [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.33 and 1.48 RMB respectively, with an upward revision of 5% and 8% from previous estimates [4][6] - The target price for the company is set at 22.77 HKD, based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025 [4][8] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company faces challenges in the liquid milk segment due to supply-demand imbalances and weaker consumer demand, but it has identified structural opportunities in premium products [2][3] - The cheese and ice cream segments show strong competitive advantages, with notable growth in international markets for ice cream [2]