Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 81.61 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The company is experiencing strong revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 55.39 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.2% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 20.62 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.1% [1]. - The company continues to see robust growth momentum, particularly in its flagship product, the collagen stick, which is anticipated to maintain around 20% growth in 2025 [1]. - The online channel revenue for the company has surpassed 50%, with expectations for continued strong growth in 2025 [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 7,115 million RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 28.45% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2,600 million RMB in 2025, indicating a growth of 26.07% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.53 RMB for 2025 [6]. Product Performance and Market Expansion - The collagen stick's revenue contribution is expected to decrease to below 30% in 2024, with new products like the focus series anticipated to drive growth [2]. - The company has opened its first brand flagship store in Chongqing and continues to expand its offline presence in key cities [2]. - The direct sales channel has shown significant growth, with DTC store sales reaching 35.87 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 66% [3]. Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 82.1%, a slight decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year due to a higher proportion of sales from essence and cream products [3]. - The selling expense ratio is expected to increase slightly in 2025 due to continued investment in online channels [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times for 2025, reflecting strong online growth and potential contributions from medical beauty products [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 81.61 HKD, based on a 30 times PE for 2025 [4].
巨子生物（02367）：业绩持续高增，美妆龙头强者恒强