CHALCO(601600) 华泰证券·2025-03-27 08:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6][7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 showed significant growth, with revenue reaching 237.066 billion RMB (up 5.21% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 12.4 billion RMB (up 85.38% year-on-year) [1][2] - The increase in alumina prices has positively impacted the company's performance, particularly in Q4 2024, where revenue was 63.288 billion RMB (up 71.44% year-on-year) and net profit was 3.383 billion RMB (up 153.13% year-on-year) [1][2] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from strong aluminum prices, which may support ongoing high growth in performance [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company produced 7.61 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, with sales increasing by 12.08% year-on-year, while alumina sales were 6.35 million tons, down 2.61% year-on-year [2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 15.75%, with Q4 gross margin at 17.19%, reflecting a 5.52 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter due to rising alumina prices [2] Price Trends and Market Outlook - Alumina prices have shown volatility, dropping from a peak of 5,769 RMB/ton in December to 3,305 RMB/ton by mid-March, indicating a potential continued weak trend [3] - Despite the decline in alumina prices, the electrolytic aluminum segment is expected to maintain profitability due to limited supply growth, which may help stabilize the company's performance [3] Project Developments - The company has ongoing projects, including the second phase of the Huasheng alumina project and the full production of the Baotou Huayun electrolytic aluminum project, which are expected to contribute to volume growth [4] - A significant asset impairment of 2.751 billion RMB was recorded in 2024, allowing the company to refresh its old equipment and potentially improve operational efficiency moving forward [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 14.718 billion RMB, 15.637 billion RMB, and 18.615 billion RMB respectively [5] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 10.32 RMB, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.0 times for 2025, reflecting its leading position in the industry [5][6]