华新水泥（600801）：Q4盈利环比改善，海外收入高增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, maintained from previous assessments [8]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are reported at 34.22 billion and 2.42 billion RMB, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of +1.4% and -12.5%. The Q4 results indicate a revenue of 9.50 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.28 billion RMB, with a notable increase in net profit by 43.9% year-on-year due to improved gross margins and asset disposal gains of 730 million RMB [1][2]. - The rebound in cement prices is expected to catalyze further recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, supported by international expansion and energy-saving initiatives driving long-term growth [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company sold 5.7 million tons of cement, 14.3 million tons of aggregates, and 3.2 million cubic meters of concrete, with year-on-year changes of -2.0%, +9.0%, and +16.7%, respectively. Revenue from these segments was 18.03 billion, 5.64 billion, and 8.42 billion RMB, showing changes of -1.6%, +5.2%, and +10.0% [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 24.7%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while Q4 gross margin was 26.4%, reflecting a slight improvement [2]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company's expense ratio for 2024 was 12.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow for 2024 was 5.98 billion RMB, down 4.1% year-on-year, but is expected to remain stable as cement business profitability improves [3]. International Expansion and Sustainability - The company's overseas revenue reached 8.04 billion RMB in 2024, a 46.5% increase year-on-year, with international business accounting for 23.5% of total revenue. The company has over 25 million tons of cement production capacity overseas [4]. - The company is committed to green and low-carbon development, achieving a reduction in domestic clinker energy consumption by 0.67 kgce/t in 2024 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.19, 1.47, and 1.55 RMB, respectively. The target price for A-shares is raised to 15.83 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.3x for 2025 [5]. - The target price for H-shares is adjusted to 11.74 HKD, reflecting a PE ratio of 9.2x for 2025, with a discount rate consistent with historical averages [5].