NONGFU SPRING(09633) 华鑫证券·2025-03-27 10:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [9] Core Views - The company's overall performance in 2024 is stable, with slight impacts on profitability. Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of +0.54% and +0.36%. However, the second half of 2024 is expected to see a decline in revenue and net profit by -6.67% [5] - The bottled water segment is under short-term pressure, but market share is gradually recovering. Revenue for bottled water in 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down -21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverages are projected to grow rapidly, with revenue of 16.745 billion yuan in 2024, up +32.27% year-on-year [6] - Cost improvements are anticipated, with the company starting to produce its own tea to reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. The company expects a decrease in PET prices in 2025, which will aid in cost management [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of +0.5% and +0.4% [11] - For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to 48.617 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.900 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of +13.3% and +14.7% [11] Market Segments - Bottled water revenue for 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down -21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverage revenue is projected at 16.745 billion yuan, up +32.27% year-on-year [6] - Functional beverages and juice drinks are also expected to perform well, with revenue for functional drinks at 4.932 billion yuan and juice drinks at 4.085 billion yuan in 2024, showing growth rates of +0.62% and +15.60%, respectively [6] Cost and Capacity Management - The company plans to maintain its capital expenditure levels in 2025, focusing on new plant construction and equipment investment [8] - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in 2024 due to reduced bottled water sales, but the company will continue to invest in water source development and equipment [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 48.617 billion yuan in 2025 to 61.133 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.24 yuan to 1.53 yuan [9][11]