中信证券（600030）：兼具投资韧性与扩表能力的龙头

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with target prices of HKD 27.10 and RMB 35.43 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance shows a revenue of RMB 637.89 billion, up 6.20% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 217.04 billion, up 10.06% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of RMB 176.48 billion, a 24% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 49.05 billion, a 48% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - Investment business has become the core driver of growth, with annual investment revenue reaching RMB 264 billion, a historical high, accounting for 41% of total revenue, and showing a 21% year-on-year increase [2][3]. - The company's balance sheet continues to strengthen, with total assets at RMB 1.7 trillion, an 18% increase year-on-year, and a net increase of RMB 257.4 billion in total assets for the year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Business - The investment business revenue reached RMB 264 billion, marking a 21% increase year-on-year and contributing 41% to total revenue. The company has shown a strong ability to expand its balance sheet, with significant growth in fixed income and OCI investments [2]. Brokerage and Asset Management - Brokerage business net income for the year was RMB 107 billion, up 5% year-on-year, with a notable increase in Q4 due to market recovery, achieving RMB 35.6 billion, a 49% year-on-year increase [3]. - The asset management business net income was RMB 105 billion, up 7% year-on-year, with total assets under management reaching RMB 1.54 trillion, an 11% increase year-on-year [3]. Investment Banking and Credit Business - The investment banking sector faced challenges, with net income declining to RMB 42 billion, down 34% year-on-year, due to a significant drop in IPO and refinancing activities [4]. - Net interest income also fell to RMB 10.8 billion, a 73% decrease year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in margin financing income and increased interest costs [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the investment business revenue assumptions and forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be RMB 1.69, RMB 1.96, and RMB 2.32 respectively. The target PB is set at 1.7/1.2 times, with a target price of RMB 35.43 and HKD 27.10 [5][8].