CPIC(601601) 浙商证券·2025-03-27 10:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with a significant increase in net profit and new business value (NBV) [1][6] - The life insurance segment's NBV growth is primarily driven by an increase in new business value rate [2] - The property insurance segment faced challenges with an increased claims ratio affecting the combined ratio (COR) [3] - The investment return rates have significantly improved, contributing to the overall profit increase [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 44.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [1] - The operating profit attributable to shareholders was 34.43 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1] - The NBV for life insurance was 13.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.9% increase year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance was 98.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] Life Insurance - The NBV growth in 2024 was driven by an increase in the new business value rate, which rose by 3.5 percentage points to 16.8% [2] - New single premium decreased slightly by 4.1% year-on-year, with agent channel premiums increasing by 14% while bank insurance channel premiums decreased by 15.6% [2] - The company is focusing on high-quality transformation across various channels, expecting continued rapid growth in NBV [2] Property Insurance - The original insurance premium for property insurance was 201.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] - The claims ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points, impacting the overall COR, which rose to 98.6% [3] - The company is enhancing risk management and optimizing business structure to improve future COR [3] Investment - The total investment scale reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a 21.5% increase compared to the end of 2023 [4] - The net investment return rate was 3.8%, while the total investment return rate was 5.6%, showing a significant improvement [4] - The total investment income was 120.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.5% [4] Assumption Adjustments - The company adjusted its long-term investment return rate assumption to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in a 23.3% decrease in NBV compared to previous assumptions [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with projected net profit growth rates of 12%, 19.8%, and 26.8% for 2025-2027 [6] - The target price is set at 48.49 yuan, corresponding to a 0.78 times price to embedded value (PEV) for 2025 [6]