Atour Lifestyle (US:ATAT) Guoxin Securities·2025-03-27 11:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a strong performance in Q4 2024, with revenue of 2.084 billion yuan, representing a 38.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, up 50% [10]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.248 billion yuan, a 55.3% increase, and a net profit of 1.275 billion yuan, up 73% [10]. - The company aims to reach a target of 2,000 stores by the end of 2025, with a revenue growth forecast of 25% for that year [4][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the adjusted net profit was 333 million yuan, reflecting a 49.9% increase, and adjusted EBITDA was 443 million yuan, up 76.5% [10]. - The overall revenue for 2024 was 7.248 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 1.306 billion yuan, marking a 44.6% increase [10]. - The company expects to maintain a stable profit margin in 2025, with an estimated adjusted net profit margin remaining relatively flat [4]. Hotel Operations - The hotel segment generated revenue of 4.851 billion yuan in 2024, a 36.8% increase, with the franchise model contributing 4.149 billion yuan, up 53% [2][13]. - The company opened 471 new hotels and closed 62, exceeding its revised target for the year [2]. - By the end of 2024, the total number of operating hotels reached 1,619, a 34% year-on-year increase [2]. Retail Business - The retail segment's GMV reached 2.59 billion yuan in 2024, a 127.7% increase, with revenue of 2.198 billion yuan, up 126.2%, accounting for over 30% of total revenue [3][14]. - The company has integrated its hotel and retail membership systems, resulting in a 41% increase in registered members to 89 million by year-end [3][14]. Future Outlook - The company plans to open 500 new stores in 2025, supported by 741 projects currently in the pipeline [4]. - The retail business is expected to grow at a rate of no less than 35% in 2025, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 25% for the group [4]. - The company anticipates a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% for adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2027 [17].