NONGFU SPRING(09633) 华鑫证券·2025-03-27 11:12Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [9]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in 2024 is stable, with slight impacts on profitability due to promotional activities and rising raw material costs. Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.54% and 0.36% [5]. - The bottled water segment faces short-term pressure but is gradually recovering market share, while tea beverages are experiencing significant growth. Revenue from bottled water in 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down 21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverage revenue is projected at 16.745 billion yuan, up 32.27% year-on-year [6]. - Cost improvements are anticipated, with the company starting to produce its own tea to reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. The company expects a decrease in PET prices in 2025, which will aid in cost management [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to 48.617 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 13.3% [11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is 58.08%, slightly down from the previous year, while the net profit margin is 28.26% [5]. Market Segments - Bottled water sales are under pressure, with a revenue forecast of 15.952 billion yuan for 2024, down 21.27% year-on-year. However, the company maintains the leading market share in this segment [6]. - Tea beverage revenue is expected to reach 16.745 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 32.27%, driven by strong performance in both sugar-free and sugar-added tea products [6]. Cost and Capacity Management - The company is implementing strategies to improve cost efficiency, including in-house tea production and targeted procurement of raw materials. The production capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in 2024 due to lower bottled water sales [8]. - Capital expenditures are projected to remain at current levels, focusing on new plant construction and equipment investments [8].