Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [5][11]. Core Insights - Yum China Holdings reported a revenue of 11.30 billion USD for 2024, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [2][11]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.60 billion USD, a 4% increase year-over-year, and an adjusted net profit of 115 million USD, marking an 11% growth year-over-year [2][11]. - The overall system sales for KFC and Pizza Hut grew by 5% and 3% respectively, while same-store sales declined by 1% and 2% [2][11]. - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with capital expenditures estimated between 700 to 800 million USD [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue reached 11.30 billion USD, with a 3% year-over-year increase, and net profit was 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [6][11]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 2.60 billion USD, a 4% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit of 115 million USD, reflecting an 11% growth year-over-year [2][11]. - The diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was 0.30 USD, a 30% increase year-over-year [2][11]. Restaurant Expansion and Performance - By the end of 2024, the total number of restaurants reached 16,395, with a net increase of 1,751 restaurants, representing a 12% annual growth [3][11]. - KFC had 11,648 stores, with a net increase of 1,352 stores (+13%), while Pizza Hut had 3,724 stores, with a net increase of 412 stores (+12%) [3][11]. - In Q4 2024, restaurant income was 2.43 billion USD, with a profit margin of 12.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [3][11]. Digital and Delivery Growth - By the end of Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut had over 525 million members, with member sales accounting for 65% of total sales [4][11]. - Digital orders for 2024 reached 9.60 billion USD, representing 90% of restaurant income, while delivery sales grew by 14% year-over-year, making up 39% of restaurant income [4][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned 1.50 billion USD to shareholders in 2024, which is about 8.5% of its market capitalization [4][11]. - The cash dividend per share is set to increase by 50% to 0.24 USD [4][11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 950 million USD, 1.01 billion USD, and 1.07 billion USD, with growth rates of 4.3%, 5.9%, and 6.6% respectively [5][11]. - The target price is set at 431.8 HKD per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [5][11].
百胜中国（09987）：公司季报点评：4Q24业绩平稳增长，同店降幅收窄