MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 华创证券·2025-03-27 11:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 25 HKD [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a main revenue of 886.75 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 10.09% year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 17.6% to 72.57 billion CNY. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 97.83% to 1.05 billion CNY [2][5]. - The company is focusing on quality and returns, aiming for operational improvements despite external pressures. The operating profit margin (OPM) has exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in profitability across core business segments [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the second half of 2024, the company achieved a main revenue of 440.04 billion CNY, down 7.37% year-on-year, but operating profit rose by 42.88% to 41.37 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -23.41 billion CNY, a decline of 230.89% [2][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.509 CNY per share, totaling 19.942 billion CNY, with a dividend payout ratio of 45% after excluding impairment losses [2][5]. Business Segment Performance - Liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 730.7 billion CNY, down 11% year-on-year, while ice cream and cheese segments showed positive growth in the second half of 2024 [5][6]. - The company has successfully controlled inventory levels and maintained operational health, leading to improved profitability in low-temperature products and fresh milk [5][6]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.29 CNY, 1.48 CNY, and 1.65 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [9][5]. - The company is expected to recover from the current challenges, with a target PE of 18 for 2025, aligning with the target price of 25 HKD [8][5].