pingmei coal(601666) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-03-27 12:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 30.281 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 4.25% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.350 billion yuan, down 41.41% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) was 0.96 yuan, which was in line with expectations [6] - The company experienced a decline in coal production but an increase in the clean coal yield. The average selling price of coal increased by 7.11% year-on-year, while the cost per ton of coal rose by 12.86%, leading to a decrease in gross profit per ton [6] - The company is gradually expanding its operations in Xinjiang, acquiring mining rights and stakes in coal mines to enhance its resource base [6] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.6 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in an estimated dividend yield of 6.8% based on the closing price [6] - Due to weak downstream demand and falling coking coal prices, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, with EPS estimates of 0.69 and 0.72 yuan respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (million yuan): 31,561 in 2023, 30,281 in 2024, 30,211 in 2025E, 29,862 in 2026E, 29,517 in 2027E [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 4,003 in 2023, 2,350 in 2024, 1,698 in 2025E, 1,791 in 2026E, 1,865 in 2027E [2] - EPS (yuan/share): 1.73 in 2023, 0.96 in 2024, 0.69 in 2025E, 0.72 in 2026E, 0.75 in 2027E [2] - Gross margin (%): 31.5 in 2023, 26.0 in 2024, 21.3 in 2025E, 20.8 in 2026E, 20.3 in 2027E [2] - Return on equity (ROE, %): 15.0 in 2023, 9.0 in 2024, 6.8 in 2025E, 6.9 in 2026E, 7.0 in 2027E [2] Market Data - Closing price (yuan): 8.84 on March 26, 2025 [3] - Market capitalization (million yuan): 21,829 [3] - Dividend yield (%): 11.20 based on the most recent dividend [3]