Guolian Sec(601456) Soochow Securities·2025-03-27 13:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guolian Minsheng [1] Core Views - The overall performance of Guolian Minsheng is impacted by investment income, while the wealth management business shows good performance [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 2,683 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, down 40.80% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in revenue and a return to profitability in net profit, despite a large decline in net profit compared to the previous quarter [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 2,955 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.68% [1] - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 2,683 million yuan, with a forecasted increase to 4,599 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 71.41% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 671 million yuan, with a projected decline to 397 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 878 million yuan in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.14 yuan, with expectations of 0.15 yuan in 2025 and 0.18 yuan in 2026 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 82.14 for 2024, decreasing to 74.44 in 2025 and further to 64.87 in 2026 [1] Business Segment Performance - Brokerage business revenue increased by 39.4% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for 26.9% of total revenue, with a notable 156% increase in Q4 [1] - Investment banking revenue decreased by 30.7% year-on-year, with a significant drop in equity underwriting [1] - Asset management revenue grew by 49.0% year-on-year, attributed to the opening of Guolian Asset Management and the consolidation of Zhongrong Fund [1] - Investment income, including fair value changes, decreased by 21.5% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in derivative financial instruments [1]