珠江啤酒（002461）：产品结构升级，原材料成本下行释放利润弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, which is a 29.95% increase year-on-year [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 376 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 46% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material costs and an upgrade in product structure, leading to improved gross margins and profitability forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [7] - The company has a strong market presence in Guangdong and South China, with potential for further national expansion [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 6.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [6] - Expected net profit for 2025 is 925 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [6] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 47.3% in 2025, up from 46.3% in 2024 [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 8.4% in 2025 [6] Market Performance - The company’s beer sales volume for 2024 was 143.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, with premium beer sales growing by 13.96% [7] - The average price per ton of beer in 2024 was 3,828 yuan, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year [7] - The company has introduced new products to strengthen its product matrix and is focusing on both traditional and new retail channels for growth [7]