Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460) [3][5][17] Core Views - The company's performance for 2024 met expectations, with revenue of RMB 13.52 billion, flat year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.64 billion, up 23% year-on-year [6][7] - The bottled water business is under short-term pressure, but profitability is expected to improve steadily due to capacity expansion and reduced reliance on outsourcing [6][8] - The beverage business is experiencing rapid growth, with a 30.8% increase in revenue to RMB 1.4 billion in 2024, supported by the existing distribution network [6][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13.515 billion - 2024: RMB 13.521 billion - 2025E: RMB 14.602 billion - 2026E: RMB 15.618 billion - 2027E: RMB 16.648 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 7.1% for 2023, 0.0% for 2024, and 8.0% for 2025 [4][8] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 1.329 billion - 2024: RMB 1.637 billion - 2025E: RMB 1.981 billion - 2026E: RMB 2.262 billion - 2027E: RMB 2.484 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 34.3% for 2023, 23.1% for 2024, and 21.1% for 2025 [4][8] Market Performance - The closing price on March 27, 2025, was HKD 14.54, with a market capitalization of HKD 34.87 billion [5][6] - The stock has shown a comparative performance of -38% against the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index over the past year [6][8]
华润饮料（02460）：包装水短期承压，盈利能力稳健提升