BYD(002594) 国投证券·2025-03-27 15:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 454.25 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - BYD's performance in 2024 is expected to be strong, with revenue and profit growth driven by new model launches and favorable domestic demand [2][4]. - The company is anticipated to maintain stable unit profitability, with a slight decline in net profit per vehicle due to increased after-sales costs [3]. - Continued investment in R&D is expected to enhance product competitiveness and support the launch of new high-end models [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, BYD achieved revenue of 274.85 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15 billion CNY, up 73% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - For the full year 2024, BYD reported total revenue of 777.1 billion CNY, a 29% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 40.3 billion CNY, a 34% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company sold 1.51 million passenger vehicles in Q4 2024, representing a 61% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. Cost and Profitability Summary - The gross margin for the automotive business in Q4 2024 was 25.4%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 145,100 CNY, showing a year-on-year decrease of 600 CNY but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 600 CNY [2]. - R&D expenses for 2024 were 54.2 billion CNY, a 36% increase year-on-year, reflecting the company's commitment to new model development and smart driving technology [4]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of Q4 2024, BYD had cash and cash equivalents of 102.3 billion CNY, significantly up from 65.8 billion CNY at the end of Q3 2024 [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 77.2 billion CNY, a 7% year-on-year increase and an 84% quarter-on-quarter increase [4]. Future Outlook - BYD is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a focus on high-end models and international expansion, leveraging its scale and cost advantages [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.21 billion CNY, 64.39 billion CNY, and 81.24 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a strong growth outlook [9].