Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company, Guming, is the second-largest fresh tea beverage brand in the full price segment and the largest in the mid-price segment, with a focus on expanding its store network and increasing GMV [1][15]. - Guming's revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached 6.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with an adjusted profit of 1.15 billion RMB, up 10.0% [1][5]. - The company has a significant market share in second-tier and lower cities, with a projected CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2028 [1][46]. Summary by Sections Basic Information - Guming has established a network of 9,778 stores as of September 30, 2024, with a product price range of 10-18 RMB [1][15]. - The company achieved a GMV of 19.2 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a growth of 37.2% [15][35]. Industry Analysis - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2024 to 2028, with the fresh tea beverage segment expected to see a CAGR of 20.8% during the same period [46][52]. - Guming holds a market share of approximately 4.8% in the fresh beverage market, with a leading position in the mid-price fresh tea segment [48][52]. Core Competitiveness - Guming employs a regional densification strategy for high-quality expansion, achieving over 25% market share in key provinces by GMV [2][17]. - The company has a strong franchisee performance, with single-store operating profits reaching 376,000 RMB and a profit margin of 20.2% [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for Guming from 2024 to 2026 are 8.72 billion, 10.07 billion, and 11.36 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.23 billion, 1.74 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB [3][5]. - The report suggests a 20% valuation premium due to Guming's extensive expansion potential, leading to a target valuation of 25X PE for 2025 [3][5].
古茗：结硬寨打呆仗，扩店空间广阔-20250328