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特海国际:运营质量持续进步,25年拓店有望加速-20250328

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 21.88 HKD [5][6]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational quality, with a significant focus on enhancing customer experience and maintaining positive same-store sales growth across various regions. The expansion strategy balances both quality and quantity, with an expected acceleration in store openings in 2025 [1][4]. - The company is actively implementing a multi-brand strategy, indicating considerable medium to long-term growth potential [1]. - The financial outlook remains positive, with revenue and profit projections showing growth, supported by supply chain optimization and operational efficiency improvements [4][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.09 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an operating profit of 17.5 million USD, up 44.6% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 8.4% [1]. - For the full year 2024, revenue reached 7.78 billion USD, reflecting a 13.4% increase, while operating profit was 53.3 million USD, a 23.7% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 0.22 million USD, down 15% year-on-year, but excluding foreign exchange losses, the net profit was 0.42 million USD, up 35.5% [1]. Store Expansion and Operations - As of the end of 2024, the company operated 122 stores across various regions, with a net addition of 7 stores during the year. The company plans to accelerate store openings in 2025, with 10 new hot pot restaurants and 2 barbecue projects in the pipeline [3][4]. - The same-store turnover rate improved across all regions, with East Asia achieving a turnover of 4.3 times per day, an increase of 0.7 times year-on-year [2][3]. Valuation and Future Projections - The target price of 21.88 HKD is based on a projected 28 times the 2026 PE ratio, reflecting the company's unique position as a leading Chinese restaurant brand expanding internationally [4][5]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 are set at 898.21 million USD, with a projected growth rate of 15.41% [19]. The net profit for 2025 is expected to reach 51.61 million USD, a significant increase of 136.71% year-on-year [19].