珠江啤酒：量价齐升，盈利高增-20250328

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 810 million RMB, up 30.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The company’s beer sales volume increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a price increase of 3.8%, indicating a strong performance in both volume and pricing [2][3] - The report highlights the structural upgrade in product offerings, particularly the high-end products like 97 Pure Draft, which benefited from improved market dynamics in Guangdong province [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and structural upgrades [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 2.5 percentage points to 14.1% [3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from beer, yeast feed, packaging materials, and restaurant leasing services in 2024 was 5.551 billion, 5 million, 60 million, and 90 million RMB respectively, with beer revenue growing by 7.0% year-on-year [2] - The sales revenue from different channels showed varied performance, with supermarkets seeing a significant increase of 46.7% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The report projects an EPS of 0.45 RMB for 2025 and 0.52 RMB for 2026, with a target price of 12.60 RMB based on a PE ratio of 28x for 2025 [4][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of offline consumption and the continued growth of high-end products [3][4]