Changshu Bank(601128) 浙商证券·2025-03-28 01:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 10.5% and a net profit increase of 16.2% for 2024, although the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first three quarters of the year [2][3] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.77% as of the end of Q4 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 501%, indicating a solid asset quality despite rising risks in small and micro loans [5][6] - The bank's net interest margin showed a year-on-year decline of 15 basis points to 2.71%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting potential for improvement in the future [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10,909 million and a net profit of 3,813 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 16.2% respectively [12] - The interest income improved by 1.4% compared to the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 7.5% [2] - The bank's asset impairment losses turned into a positive contribution to profit growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% in asset impairment losses for 2024 [2] Loan Growth - Loan growth has been slowing, with a decrease of 1.4% in loan growth rate to 8.3% by the end of Q4 2024, indicating weak demand for small and micro loans [3] - The bank is actively promoting the high-quality development of village banks, which may unlock future loan growth potential if economic conditions improve [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.77%, with a slight decrease in the attention rate to 1.49% [5] - The bank's provision coverage ratio decreased by 28% to 501%, but remains high, allowing for potential profit support through appropriate provision releases [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 10.45%/10.48%/11.02% for 2025-2027, with corresponding book values per share of 10.41/11.68/13.09 [6][12] - The target price is set at 8.96 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.86 for 2025 [6]