Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-03-28 02:13Report Overview - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series - Report Date: March 28, 2025 - Reported Industries: Iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, glass 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Intensified long-short game, wide-range oscillation [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Improved sentiment, short-term rebound [2]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Resonance in the black futures market, wide-range oscillation [2]. - Coke and coking coal: Oscillating at low levels [2]. - Thermal coal: Slow release of demand, weak operation [2]. - Glass: Stable prices of original sheets [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of I2505 futures was 789.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan or 1.15%. The position decreased by 715 lots to 412,123 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores generally rose. The basis for I2505 against Super Special decreased by 2.4 yuan to 67.1 yuan [5]. - News: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 0.3% [5]. - Trend Strength: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of RB2505 and HC2505 futures were 3,208 yuan/ton and 3,381 yuan/ton, down 0.19% and 0.12% respectively. Rebar trading volume was 1,477,756 lots, and hot-rolled coil trading volume was 470,455 lots. Spot prices generally declined. The basis for RB2505 decreased by 19 yuan to 32 yuan, and the basis for HC2505 decreased by 5 yuan to -11 yuan [7]. - News: On March 28, steel output increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. From January to February, total social electricity consumption increased by 1.3% year-on-year [8]. - Trend Strength: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a bullish outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2504 and 2505 futures were 5,974 yuan/ton and 6,002 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan and 18 yuan respectively. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2504 and 2505 futures were 6,274 yuan/ton and 6,130 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan each. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained stable [11]. - News: On March 27, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The production of silicomanganese in northern regions in March decreased compared to February [12]. - Trend Strength: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of JM2505 and J2505 futures were 1,035 yuan/ton and 1,637.5 yuan/ton, up 0.93% and 1.36% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. The basis for JM2505 against Meng 5 decreased by 12 yuan to 48 yuan, and the basis for J2505 against Shanxi quasi-primary coke increased by 212.5 yuan to -240.5 yuan [14]. - News: The prices of coking coal in northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index were released. On March 27, the long and short positions of JM2505 and J2505 decreased [14][15][16]. - Trend Strength: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Thermal Coal - Fundamental Data: The ZC2504 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. Southern port and domestic production area prices were released. On March 27, the long and short positions of ZC2504 did not change [19][20]. - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Glass - Fundamental Data: The closing price of FG505 futures was 1,236 yuan/ton, down 0.96%. The trading volume was 2,256,780 lots, and the position increased by 54,786 lots. The basis for the 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan to -96 yuan, and the 05 - 09 contract spread increased by 11 yuan to -31 yuan. Spot prices in some regions decreased [22]. - News: The prices of domestic float glass original sheets were stable with local loosening. The futures price weakened, and downstream orders were limited [22]. - Trend Strength: 1, indicating a bullish outlook [23].