JINZAI FOOD GROUP CO.(SZ:003000) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-28 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.41 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 290 million yuan, up 39.0% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 640 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and a net profit of 80 million yuan, growing by 0.3% year-on-year. The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 340 million yuan (-0.5) and 420 million yuan (-0.6) respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 530 million yuan, indicating growth rates of 17.8%, 22.5%, and 26.0% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 15.8, 12.9, and 10.2 times [3][4][5] Revenue Growth - In 2024, the company generated revenue from various product categories: fish products (1.53 billion yuan, +18.76%), poultry products (510 million yuan, +12.67%), bean products (250 million yuan, +13.89%), vegetable products (80 million yuan, +9.58%), and other products (10 million yuan, +80.41%). The growth in other products was driven by a surge in gift box sales [4] Regional Performance - Revenue by region in 2024 included: East China (650 million yuan, +32.8%), Southwest (300 million yuan, +20.9%), Central China (300 million yuan, +11.9%), South China (290 million yuan, +23.6%), North China (250 million yuan, +9.0%), Northwest (150 million yuan, +25.2%), Northeast (60 million yuan, +11.0%), overseas (20 million yuan, +222.7%), and online channels (390 million yuan, -6.1%). The decline in online revenue may be attributed to high channel costs [4] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 30.5%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in raw material prices. The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 31.0%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, possibly due to channel structure and new product sales impacts. The sales expense ratio for 2024 was 12.0%, up 1.2 percentage points, while the management expense ratio was 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating relative stability [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The financial summary for the company includes projected revenues of 2.85 billion yuan for 2025, 3.47 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.28 billion yuan for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.3%, 21.8%, and 23.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 343 million yuan in 2025, 420 million yuan in 2026, and 529 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 17.8%, 22.5%, and 26.0% respectively. The projected PE ratios are 15.8 for 2025, 12.9 for 2026, and 10.2 for 2027 [6][8]