NJTC(601975) 国信证券·2025-03-28 03:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, downgraded from Outperform [3][5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a rapid growth in annual performance for 2024, achieving a revenue of 6.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.921 billion yuan, up 23.38% year-on-year. However, Q4 showed a significant decline in performance, with revenue of 1.467 billion yuan, down 0.89% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 265 million yuan, down 39.10% quarter-on-quarter [1][6]. - The transportation demand for refined oil in 2024 was highly volatile, with freight rates peaking and then declining. Despite strong performance in the first half of the year, the average freight rate for the year did not show significant increases due to geopolitical factors and competition from crude oil tankers [1][9]. - The outlook for 2025 suggests a return to normal demand for refined oil, supported by OPEC+ production increases and a long-term trend of "refining energy moving east," which is expected to bolster medium to long-term demand [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's refined oil transportation revenue increased by 9.3% to 3.75 billion yuan, but the gross margin declined by 2.88 percentage points to 32.8% [1][9]. - The crude oil transportation business generated revenue of 1.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with a gross margin of 37.7% [2][9]. - Chemical transportation revenue reached 470 million yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.7% [2][9]. - The company disposed of four old vessels in 2024, contributing 270 million yuan in asset disposal gains, which helped drive overall performance growth [3][12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down from 2.26 billion yuan and 2.37 billion yuan to 1.57 billion yuan and 1.61 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.64 billion yuan [3][12]. - The corresponding PE ratios are projected at 9.3, 9.0, and 8.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][12]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.475 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.921 billion yuan [4][13]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 32% in the coming years, with a slight decline in ROE from 17.7% in 2024 to 10.5% by 2027 [4][13].