Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company's core business gross margin has stabilized, indicating that the peak of asset impairment may have passed, which is expected to further enhance shareholder returns [1][2] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 43.99 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.81 billion RMB, a significant increase of 519% compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower-than-expected impairment of receivables and goodwill [1][2] - The company plans to continue enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, with a dividend payout ratio based on core net profit increasing to 33% in 2024 [3] Revenue and Profitability - The core business revenue (including basic property management, community value-added services, and ancillary services) grew by 9% year-on-year, while gross profit increased by 2%, leading to an increase in revenue and gross profit contribution to 87% and 91%, respectively [2] - The difference between net profit attributable to shareholders and core net profit is mainly due to goodwill impairment from previous acquisitions and other intangible asset amortization [2] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company has significantly improved cash flow management in the second half of 2024, with operating cash flow net income covering core net profit by 127%, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The year-end cash and cash equivalents reached 18.18 billion RMB, supporting a dividend payout ratio of 33% and a dividend yield of 5.0% as of March 27 [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 0.63 RMB and 0.73 RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 7% and 6% from previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company is set at 7.89 HKD, based on a revised price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8 times for 2025, up from a previous target of 5.20 HKD [4][7]
碧桂园服务（06098）：核心业务毛利回稳，减值高峰或已过去