KinLong(SZ:002791) Ping An Securities·2025-03-28 03:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.64 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 14.9%, with a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 72.2% year-on-year [4][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [4]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company maintains a good operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 390 million yuan for 2024, which is significantly higher than the net profit [7][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.9% [6][10]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 90 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop of 72.2% year-on-year [6][10]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 31.7% for 2024 [6][10]. - Future Projections: - The company forecasts net profits of 298 million yuan in 2025, 383 million yuan in 2026, and 428 million yuan in 2027 [8][10]. - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are 26.7 for 2025, 20.8 for 2026, and 18.6 for 2027 [8][10]. - Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 349 million yuan in 2024, with a decrease in accounts receivable continuing [11]. - Total assets are projected to reach 9.88 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt ratio of 39.7% [9][10]. Market and Product Insights - The company has experienced a decline in revenue across various product categories, with the most significant drops in window and door hardware and home products [7]. - The overseas business has shown good growth, with revenue from international markets increasing by 14.72% [7]. Conclusion - The company is positioned to recover in the coming years, with strong channel and product advantages, and potential for profit margin recovery as cost management improves [8].