YIWU CCC(600415) 天风证券·2025-03-28 04:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 15.74 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 39% [6][12]. - The core business is anticipated to contribute substantially to profits, with a main profit increase of 93% year-on-year, reaching 2.81 billion yuan [1][5]. - New business initiatives, particularly in international trade services, are expected to enhance revenue streams and profitability [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51%, and a net profit of 745 million yuan, up 107% [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company is projected to generate a total revenue of 15.74 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.85% increase [6][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 31% in 2024, up 5 percentage points year-on-year [1][12]. Business Segment Analysis - The market operating revenue is expected to reach 4.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 84% [2]. - Product sales revenue is projected at 9.3 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 0.69% [2]. - Trade service revenue is anticipated to be 739 million yuan, with a gross margin of 85% [2]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is making steady progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a significant optimization in expense ratios [3]. - The offline transaction volume is expected to reach 279.8 billion yuan in 2024, a 20% increase year-on-year, with daily customer traffic hitting a record high [3]. New Business Development - The CG platform is projected to generate 341 million yuan in revenue for 2024, with a 102% increase in operating profit [4]. - The cross-border payment service, "Yi Payment," is expected to exceed 4 billion USD in transaction volume, marking a 233% increase year-on-year [4]. - The logistics segment is set to expand with over 300,000 square meters of cross-border e-commerce logistics parks becoming operational [4]. Long-term Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative, with continued growth in export demand [5]. - The rental levels are projected to maintain single-digit growth, supporting overall revenue growth [5]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward, with expected net profits of 3.9 billion yuan, 5.1 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan respectively [5].