洛阳钼业（603993）：业绩超预期增长，铜产量创历史新高

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The company achieved a record high in copper production and exceeded revenue expectations, with a revenue of 2130.29 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.37% [1] - The company’s main products, copper and cobalt, saw significant production increases, with copper production reaching 650,200 tons, a 55% year-on-year growth, and cobalt production at 114,200 tons, a 106% increase [2] - The company is advancing a new round of copper capacity expansion plans, aiming for a copper production target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028, indicating strong long-term growth potential [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.03% [1] - The gross profit margins for copper and cobalt increased by 4.96 percentage points and decreased by 2.70 percentage points, respectively, reaching 50.26% and 34.31% [2] - The company’s revenue is projected to continue growing, with estimates of 219.58 billion yuan in 2025 and 224.57 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Production and Capacity - The company successfully completed its production targets for all major products in 2024, exceeding the upper limits of its production guidance [3] - The production completion rates for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate were 119%, 176%, 114%, 118%, 106%, and 103%, respectively [3] Price and Cost Analysis - The average price for LME copper in 2024 was $9,147 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.83$11.26 per pound, a decrease of 25.48% [2] - The sales costs for copper and cobalt decreased by 12.47% and 26.25%, respectively, to 30,200 yuan per ton and 52,700 yuan per ton [2] Future Outlook - The company has provided production guidance for 2025, expecting copper production of 600,000 to 660,000 tons and cobalt production of 100,000 to 120,000 tons, indicating sustained high levels of output [4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 148.8 billion yuan, 160.3 billion yuan, and 180.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.3, 10.5, and 9.3 [4]