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中国海油(600938):2024年年报点评:海上油气龙头稳步上产,承诺分红率提高彰显股息价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading offshore oil and gas producer, showing steady production growth and an increased commitment to dividend payouts, highlighting its dividend value [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 420.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong willingness to return value to shareholders [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7.20%, with a production target of 760 to 780 million barrels for 2025 [2]. - The company’s capital expenditure in 2024 was 132.5 billion yuan, in line with initial plans, with a year-on-year growth of 2.24% [2]. Pricing and Cost Management - The average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 was $79.86 per barrel, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was $76.75 per barrel, down 1.55% [3]. - The company managed to reduce its main cost per barrel to $28.52, a decrease of 1.08% year-on-year, primarily due to lower abandonment and sales management costs [3]. Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 53.63% in 2024, an increase of 3.75 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 32.80%, up 3.08 percentage points [3]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a total dividend of 1.40 HKD per share for 2024, a 12.00% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 44.7% [4]. - The expected cash dividend per share is approximately 1.29 RMB, with dividend yields of 4.89% for A shares and 7.49% for H shares [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 126.89 billion yuan, 130.52 billion yuan, and 134.42 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.67, 2.75, and 2.83 yuan per share [5][6].