INDUSTRIAL BANK(601166) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-28 05:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has returned to positive profit growth, with a focus on risk reduction and increased dividends, showcasing a stable high dividend yield [1][6] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 212.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 77.2 billion yuan, up 0.1% year-on-year [4][6] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 1.07% in Q4 2024, while the provision coverage ratio increased by 4.2 percentage points to 238% [4][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 210.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 215.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.64% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 77.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 78.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 1.67% [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline slightly from 9.89% in 2024 to 9.37% in 2025 [5] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - Net interest income continues to grow steadily, contributing positively to revenue, with a 1.1% year-on-year increase in 2024 [6][8] - The company’s non-interest income decreased by 0.3% in 2024, primarily due to a 13% decline in fee income [6][8] - The cost-to-income ratio is expected to improve, with a projected decrease from 29.97% in 2023 to 29.50% in 2024 [13] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The company’s asset quality is showing steady improvement, with a projected NPL generation rate of 0.93% for 2024, down from 1.08% in 2023 [9][11] - The company has maintained a strong provision coverage ratio, indicating a robust buffer against potential loan losses [9][11] - The company’s focus on key sectors such as technology, green finance, and inclusive finance is expected to drive loan growth in 2025 [6][10] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio has increased to over 30%, marking 15 consecutive years of dividend growth, with an expected dividend yield of 4.93% in 2025 [6][9]