中国重汽（000951）：系列点评三：2024业绩超预期，以旧换新政策有望发力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.929 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.80%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.48 billion RMB, up 36.96% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 11.342 billion RMB, which was in line with expectations, while the net profit for the same period was 546 million RMB, exceeding expectations with a year-on-year increase of 28.44% [2]. - The heavy truck export market remains robust, with a total export volume of 69,000 units in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3]. - The implementation of the old-for-new policy is expected to boost domestic demand, particularly for natural gas heavy trucks, which will benefit the company as a leading player in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 44.929 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.48 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 6.80% and 36.96% respectively [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 11.342 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.32% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.47% [2]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 11.54%, with a net margin of 5.45%, indicating significant improvement in profitability [2]. Market Outlook - The heavy truck export market is expected to maintain high demand, with the company holding a market share of 42.6% in Q4 2024 [3]. - The new old-for-new policy is anticipated to enhance sales, particularly in the natural gas heavy truck segment, which is now included in the subsidy program [3]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56.161 billion RMB, 64.024 billion RMB, and 71.707 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.766 billion RMB, 2.027 billion RMB, and 2.336 billion RMB [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are 1.50 RMB, 1.73 RMB, and 1.99 RMB, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 11, and 10 respectively [4][5].