Chengxin Lithium(SZ:002240) Guotai Junan Securities·2025-03-28 06:49Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Cautious Accumulate" from "Accumulate" [1][11] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is under pressure due to declining lithium prices and significant impairment provisions, leading to a projected revenue of 45.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.4% [2][11] - The company is expected to recover as projects like the Muliang Lithium Mine progress, which will enhance resource self-sufficiency and alleviate margin pressure from narrowing smelting price differentials [2][11] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 7,951 million yuan, projected to drop to 4,581 million yuan in 2024, with a subsequent increase to 4,867 million yuan in 2025 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to shift from a profit of 702 million yuan in 2023 to a loss of 622 million yuan in 2024, with a recovery to 174 million yuan in 2025 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.68 yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.19 yuan in 2025 and 0.54 yuan in 2026 [4] Market Data - The current stock price is 13.23 yuan, with a target price maintained at 13.94 yuan [1][5] - The stock has a market capitalization of 12,109 million yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.24 based on the current price [5][4] Project Progress - The company has successfully ramped up production at its Yilonggou lithium concentrate project, achieving a production capacity of 75,000 tons per year, and the Zimbabwe project is also operational [11] - The construction of the Sichuan Muliang Lithium Mine is progressing well, with expectations for production to commence by the end of 2027, potentially reaching an annual capacity of 570,000 tons [11]