Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of HKD 16 billion, reflecting a slightly higher than industry average PE of 22x for 2025 [7]. Core Views - The company has significant store expansion potential and strong growth prospects, with expectations for same-store sales recovery in 2025 [2]. - The 2024 revenue is projected at RMB 5.21 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 581 million, up 9.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 667 stores by the end of 2024, a 24.4% increase year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue: - 2022: RMB 3,213 million - 2023: RMB 4,549 million - 2024: RMB 5,210 million (14.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 6,451 million - 2026E: RMB 7,736 million - 2027E: RMB 9,042 million [6] - Net Profit: - 2022: RMB 238 million - 2023: RMB 532 million - 2024: RMB 581 million (9.1% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 683 million - 2026E: RMB 813 million - 2027E: RMB 950 million [6] - Profitability Ratios: - Net profit margin for 2024 is 11.1%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Store Expansion and Sales Performance - The company added 131 new stores in 2024, with net increases in various city tiers: - Tier 1: 22 stores - New Tier 1: 40 stores - Tier 2: 20 stores - Tier 3 and below: 49 stores [7]. - Same-store sales decreased by 12.1% in 2024, but improvements are anticipated in 2025 [7]. - The average customer spending in 2024 was RMB 59.2, down 9% year-on-year [7]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 is 68.1%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - Employee costs accounted for 27.3% of revenue, down 2.0 percentage points due to improved operational efficiency [7]. - Rent costs increased to 6.7% of revenue, reflecting the expansion of the store network [7].
小菜园（00999）：2024年报业绩点评：门店持续扩张，期待同店回暖