Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Huachuang Securities·2025-03-28 06:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [3][32]. Core Insights - The company has announced a new stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant up to 2.0366 million restricted shares, accounting for 0.61% of the total share capital. The grant price is set at 28.78 CNY per share, which is approximately 50.5% of the market price [2][10]. - The incentive plan targets 168 individuals, including senior management and key personnel, aiming to enhance motivation and retain talent during the industry adjustment period [2][6]. - The performance targets for the incentive plan are ambitious, with revenue growth rates set at no less than 20%, 36%, and 55% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profit growth rates set at no less than 164%, 231%, and 309% for the same years [2][17]. Financial Projections - The company's total revenue is projected to be 5,357 million CNY in 2024, with a slight increase to 5,412 million CNY in 2025, followed by 5,771 million CNY in 2026 and 6,537 million CNY in 2027. The year-on-year growth rates are expected to be -24.3%, 1.0%, 6.6%, and 13.3% respectively [2][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 345 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 477 million CNY in 2025, 546 million CNY in 2026, and 663 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -80.5%, 37.9%, 14.6%, and 21.3% respectively [2][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.04 CNY in 2024 to 1.43 CNY in 2025, 1.64 CNY in 2026, and 1.99 CNY in 2027 [2][21]. Market Performance - The company's stock price target is set at 78 CNY, while the current price is 56.97 CNY, indicating a potential upside [3][6]. - The company has experienced a significant decline of 47% over the past year, compared to a 24% decline in the benchmark index [5][6]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on optimizing expenses to achieve high elastic growth in profits, with a strategic emphasis on maintaining price stability and strengthening market foundations [2][6]. - The report highlights the importance of external demand conditions for achieving revenue targets, while the profit side is expected to show high elasticity due to a low base [2][6].