PSBC(SH:601658) Orient Securities·2025-03-28 06:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank with a target price of 7.18 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium over the estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.80 for 2025 [3][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the reduction in agency fees has contributed to cost savings, leading to a favorable growth in corporate deposits and loans. The bank's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to the parent company showed year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.5%, and 0.2% respectively by the end of 2024 [11]. - The bank's total assets and loan growth rates have slightly slowed, with total assets growing by 8.6% and loans by 9.4% as of the end of 2024. Corporate loans increased by 13.5% year-on-year, indicating a balanced optimization in business structure [11]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.90% as of the end of 2024, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter. The retail sector has faced some pressure due to industry-specific factors, but the overall risk coverage remains adequate [11]. Financial Information Summary - The report provides detailed financial projections for Postal Savings Bank, including: - Revenue (in million CNY): 342,507 in 2023, projected to grow to 348,775 in 2024, and further to 374,031 by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.5% [5][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): 86,270 in 2023, with a slight increase to 86,479 in 2024, and projected to reach 93,348 by 2027 [5][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS): Expected to rise from 0.80 CNY in 2023 to 0.88 CNY by 2027 [5][13]. - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: Expected to decrease from 6.42 in 2023 to 6.07 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in market valuation [5][13].