CMOC(603993) 天风证券·2025-03-28 06:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The company achieved a record high in copper production and exceeded revenue expectations, with a revenue of 2130.29 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.37% [1] - The company’s main products, copper and cobalt, saw significant production increases, with copper production reaching 650,200 tons, a 55% year-on-year growth, and cobalt production at 114,200 tons, a 106% increase [2] - The company is advancing a new round of copper capacity expansion, aiming for a copper production target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028, indicating strong long-term growth potential [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.03% [1] - The gross margin for copper and cobalt improved by 4.96 percentage points and decreased by 2.70 percentage points, respectively, resulting in gross margins of 50.26% for copper and 34.31% for cobalt [2] - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 219.58 billion yuan, 160.30 billion yuan, and 180.60 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.3, 10.5, and 9.3 [4][5] Production and Capacity - The company successfully completed its production targets for all major products in 2024, exceeding the upper limits of its production guidance [3] - The production completion rates for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate were 119%, 176%, 114%, 118%, 106%, and 103%, respectively [3] - The company is also focusing on cost control, with sales costs for copper and cobalt decreasing by 12.47% and 26.25%, respectively [2] Market Conditions - The average price for LME copper in 2024 was 11.26 per pound, a decrease of 25.48% [2] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 34,626.28 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [5]