Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 127.89 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.885 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6%, with a net profit of 880.61 million RMB, also reflecting a growth of 33% [1]. - The online sales data has shown strong performance, while offline expansion into high-end malls like SKP is enhancing brand value [1]. - The introduction of new products such as body creams and eyeshadow is anticipated to drive long-term growth [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from cosmetics is projected to be 2.304 billion RMB, accounting for 59.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 42% [2]. - Skincare revenue is expected to reach 1.429 billion RMB, making up 36.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 23.2% [2]. - Training revenue is forecasted at 152 million RMB, representing 45.8% of its segment, with a year-on-year growth of 45.8% [2]. Online and Offline Performance - Offline revenue is projected to be 1.949 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 52.2% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [3]. - Online revenue is expected to reach 1.784 billion RMB, making up 47.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 51.2% [3]. - The company plans to continue establishing counters in high-end department stores, particularly in first-tier cities, to enhance brand influence [3]. Customer Retention and Financial Metrics - The online channel's repurchase rate is 27.5%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the offline channel's repurchase rate is 34.9%, up by 2.1 percentage points [4]. - The gross profit margin is reported at 84.4%, with a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased logistics and transportation costs [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.175 billion RMB, 1.533 billion RMB, and 1.917 billion RMB respectively, with slight upward adjustments from previous estimates [5]. - The target price is set at 127.89 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 38 times for 2026, reflecting improved liquidity and growth potential from new product categories [5].
毛戈平（01318）：线上线下高质量快速增长