Changshu Bank(601128) 华泰证券·2025-03-28 06:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.86 RMB [8][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.813 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.2%, while operating revenue is projected to reach 10.909 billion RMB, up 10.5% year-on-year [1][27]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.25 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 19.8% and a dividend yield of 3.44% [1][5]. - Despite challenges in short-term operations due to the recovery of small and micro enterprises, the company's business model is mature and resilient, justifying the "Buy" rating [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's total assets, loans, and deposits are projected to grow by 9.6%, 8.3%, and 15.9% respectively by the end of 2024, indicating a slight decline in growth rates compared to previous quarters [2]. - The net interest margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 2.71%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous quarter [2]. - Other non-interest income is expected to grow by 25.9% in 2024, recovering from a decline in the previous quarters [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.77% by the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 501% [4]. - The company anticipates a credit NPL generation rate of 1.12% for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.49 percentage points [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.229 billion RMB, 4.710 billion RMB, and 5.255 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with respective growth rates of 10.9%, 11.4%, and 11.6% [5][27]. - The target price of 8.86 RMB corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.85 for 2025, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's strong operational resilience [5][11].