PSBC(SH:601658) HTSC·2025-03-28 06:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company’s A-shares and an "Accumulate" rating for its H-shares [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a slight increase in net profit and operating income in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.24% and 1.83% respectively, although the net profit growth is lower than previous expectations due to increased provisioning and rising credit costs [1][2]. - The company plans to lower the agency fee rates for savings deposits with a maturity of three years or less, which is anticipated to enhance profit margins and potentially increase profit growth by 4.0% in 2025 [3][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets, loans, and deposits are projected to grow by 8.6%, 9.4%, and 9.5% respectively, showing a slight decrease in growth rates compared to previous quarters [2]. - The net interest margin for 2024 is forecasted at 1.87%, with a year-on-year increase in net interest income of 1.5% [2]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year in 2024, with significant growth in wealth management business net income, which is projected to increase by 40.1% [3]. - The company plans to adjust the agency fee rates, which will reduce the comprehensive agency fee rate from 1.08% to 1.04%, thereby lowering costs and improving profit margins [3][13]. Asset Quality and Capital Levels - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to be 0.90% at the end of 2024, with a slight increase from the previous quarter, while the provision coverage ratio is expected to be 286% [4]. - The capital adequacy ratio and core tier one capital ratio are forecasted to improve slightly, indicating a solid capital position [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report sets a target price of RMB 6.29 for A-shares and HKD 6.17 for H-shares, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.70 and 0.64 for 2025 [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 0.88, reflecting a slight downward revision from previous estimates [5].