CMES(601872) 华泰证券·2025-03-28 06:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 10.40 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.8 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.1 billion RMB, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The diversified business model has contributed to stable profit growth [1]. - For 2025, the company is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical events, leading to a rise in oil transportation prices. The dry bulk segment is anticipated to see price increases due to a recovery in macro demand, while container shipping prices are expected to remain stable [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - In 2024, the company's oil transportation business net profit was 2.64 billion RMB, down 14.5% year-on-year due to weak global demand and OPEC+ production cuts. However, the company adjusted its route layout, outperforming market indices [2]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the gradual increase in OPEC+ production is expected to boost oil transportation demand [2]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The net profit for the dry bulk transportation business in 2024 was 1.41 billion RMB, up 57.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from 2023. The dry bulk market showed stable demand with a 27.3% increase in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) year-on-year [3]. - For 2025, a marginal improvement in domestic demand and potential growth in overseas markets are expected to drive further increases in dry bulk transportation prices [3]. Container Shipping - The container shipping business achieved a net profit of 1.31 billion RMB in 2024, a 50.6% increase year-on-year, driven by price increases from rerouting around the Red Sea. The ongoing geopolitical situation is expected to keep container shipping profits stable in 2025 [4]. - The LNG shipping business reported a net profit of 600 million RMB, benefiting from long-term lease agreements, while the roll-on/roll-off shipping segment saw a net profit of 340 million RMB, up 8.2% year-on-year [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 6.64 billion RMB and 6.37 billion RMB, respectively, and has introduced a new forecast for 2027 at 6.23 billion RMB. The target price has been raised by 4% to 10.4 RMB based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.9x for 2025 [5].