Weichai Power(000338) 民生证券·2025-03-28 06:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 15.76 RMB on March 27, 2025 [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 215.69 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.40 billion RMB, up 26.51% year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 3.00 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a 19.46% increase year-on-year and a 20.21% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profitability [2]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with significant growth in agricultural equipment and overseas subsidiaries, contributing to overall revenue growth [3]. - The expansion of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to boost domestic demand for heavy trucks, particularly those using natural gas engines [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 53.74 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.64% [2]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.15%, with a net profit margin of 7.32%, indicating strong operational efficiency [2]. - The company forecasts revenues of 231.11 billion RMB, 241.61 billion RMB, and 248.86 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 12.75 billion RMB, 14.24 billion RMB, and 15.50 billion RMB [4][5]. Product and Market Development - The agricultural equipment segment reported a revenue of 17.39 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.38%, marking a historical high [3]. - The overseas subsidiary KION achieved a revenue of 11.5 billion EUR in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.61%, also a historical high [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic engine sector, focusing on extending its product line and enhancing core competitiveness [4]. Investment Outlook - The report anticipates a continued recovery in domestic demand for heavy trucks, driven by the expanded subsidy policy for replacing old vehicles [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.46 RMB, 1.63 RMB, and 1.78 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [4][5].